Every now and than people suprise you...

Sometimes when your hitting the grind day in and day out, the constant push to strive and do better, to stay ahead of the curve, to drowned out the distractions and competition can get discouraging. When I opened my LinkedIn account today I received a great surprise that puts my work into perspective, I hope this is how all my clients and friends see me...

"Parker is very detailed oriented and always has his clients best interest at heart. Even when things in the real estate industry ran into tough times, Parker was still doing what was right for his clients and not just his pocket book. He not only did well in business but also did some of his best business ever during this time due to this fact. Parker is always staying up to date with industry changes and is truly an expert in Real Estate. I would highly recommend him for any of your Real Estate needs and would trust his advice explicitly." - Ben Wadsworth

Thanks Buddy, Thank you very much. I only hope I can continue to be worthy of such admiration.

More Owners Optimistic About Home Values

The number of home owners who fear the value of their homes will fall in the next year declined to 15 percent in January, the lowest level since early 2007, according to a Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan survey published last week.

That’s a big improvement over the first quarter of 2009, when 26 percent expected the value of their homes to decline.

Home owners were less optimistic about gains in the value of their homes, with the average anticipated annual gain holding steady at 2.7 percent in January.

In January, 46 percent said the value of their homes decreased in the past year, while 14 percent said the value had increased.

Source: Reuters News, Julie Haviv (02/05/2010)

Are Interest Rates About to Rise?

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley says the central bank will scale back its purchases of mortgage-backed securities late next month. While interest rates likely will climb when the program ceases, the extent of the rise remains to be seen.

Dudley says the Fed will act if rates spike too much. Still, analysts worry that the end of the MBA purchase program and expiration of the home-buyer tax credit, along with higher premiums and tighter underwriting of FHA mortgages, will work together to stifle home sales and price stabilization in the coming months.

Source: Inman News (02/08/10)

4 Reasons to Sell Now

Selling a property in this tough market can seem like a challenge. Here are four factors that actually make this a good time to post a For-Sale sign.

• Sell low and buy low. Because all property values are down, the loss on the property a home owner sells is really only a paper loss because the next property he buys also will be a bargain. If he buys smartly, when prices come back up in a few years, he’ll be in better shape.
• Down-payment help is widely available. While nothing-down loans have disappeared, it is easy to find down-payment assistance for lower-income and first-time home buyers. Programs vary all over the country, but one good way to find them is to search online for “down-payment assistance programs” and the name of your region.
• Your uncle has money to share. Besides the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit and the $6,500 move-up credit, there are an array of energy tax credits that can make home improvements pay off in cash.
• Good help is available. Really talented real estate practitioners, contractors, and designers are available and eager for business.

Source: McClatchy Tribune, Kate Forgach (02/07/2010)

Mortgage Applications Jump Last Week

Mortgage Applications Jump Last Week

Mortgage applications shot up 21 percent last week compared to the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. On an unadjusted basis, applications rose 23.5 percent.

The unadjusted purchase index increased 17.5 percent compared with the previous week, but was down 11.2 percent from the same week a year ago.

“Mortgage application volume rebounded last week, returning the purchase and refinance indexes to levels from mid-December,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics.

"Rates continue to hover around 5 percent, quite low by historical standards, but are well above the record lows seen in 2009, and hence are not generating substantial refi volume," Fratantoni said. "We expect that rates will rise over the next few months as the Federal Reserve winds down its MBS purchase program, and this will likely lead to a decline in refinance volume."

Here are the average contract interest rate changes:

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 5.01 percent from 5.02 percent.
• 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.33 percent from 4.34 percent.
• 1-year ARMs decreased to 6.70 percent from 6.84 percent.

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (02/03/2010)

QUIZ: Real Estate Investment

QUIZ: Real Estate Investment
To be a savvy real estate investor you must be able to understand market conditions, assess how much time and money it'll take to rehab properties, and know how to deal with tenants and building maintenance. It’s not easy, but it can be highly profitable if you know what you’re doing. 1. Before you invest in real estate, you should: Look at sales activity and home prices of neighborhoods in which you'd like to invest. Examine market data over the past several years to look for trends Consider the number of single-family homes versus multifamily properties in the neighborhood and find out which way development is trending Compute the ratio of tenant-occupied and owner-occupied properties, and try to decipher a trend All of the above 2. You invest in single-family houses that you rehab and resell, usually within six months. Your goal is a 15 percent profit. You've had your eye on one fixer-upper, and when it finally goes on the market, you jump. Unfortunately, so do three other people, driving up the price beyond what you expected to pay. Should you: Pay as much as it takes to get the property. If so many other investors are interested, it's probably worth it Gauge the market, along with the potential costs and time to make repairs, to determine whether a higher price is warranted Forget about it; it's not worth the trouble. It's better to find properties that no one else wants 3. Once you've identified a single-family investment property that you're interested in buying for investment, you should: Visually inspect the property yourself to ensure it's structurally sound Bring in a qualified home inspector for an inspection Go beyond the standard home inspection 4. Five real estate investment "tools" that can lead you to wealth are: Cash flow, amortization, leverage, appreciation, and the tax advantages of real estate investing Market knowledge, return on investment, nice tenants, cyclical markets, and negotiating skill Life, liberty, comedy, tragedy, and the pursuit of happiness 5. You're investing in a market that has cooled off. Your best strategy might be to: Stop looking for investments until the market turns up again Look for investments that you can buy, hold, and rent out until the market turns up again Get a warm parka 6. With a lease-option arrangement you: Negotiate a long-term commitment with a property owner for a low monthly rent that allows you to sublease to a tenant and gives you or the tenant the right to purchase at any time Have the opportunity to build equity in a property through lease payments before you formally buy the property Make an agreement with tenants to lease part of a property you own with an option of adding space in the future The first two answer choices None of the above 7. A 203(k) is: A federal tax-deferred savings plan that can be used for making real estate investments An FHA mortgage insurance program that allows the cost of rehabilitation on a home to be built into the mortgage The portion of the federal tax code that covers real estate depreciation

Pending Home Sales Stabilize

This article is sort of long but totally worth it!

Pending Home Sales Stabilize

Pending home sales have leveled from a market swing driven by response to the home buyer tax credit, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in December, increased 1 percent to 96.6 from 95.6 in November, and remains 10.9 percent above December 2008 when it was 87.1.

In November, the monthly index had fallen by 16.4 percent from surging activity in preceding months.

Lawrence Yun , NAR chief economist, says it’s important to recognize how the tax credit is skewing market data.

“There are easily understood swings in contract activity as buyers respond to a tax credit that was expiring and was then extended and expanded,” he says. “These swings are masking the underlying trend, which is a broad improvement over year-ago levels."

December activity was the fifth highest monthly tally in two years.

The Tax Credit Impact

Buyers who have a contract in place to purchase a primary residence by April 30, 2010, have until June 30, 2010, to finalize the transaction to qualify for a tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time buyers and $6,500 for repeat buyers.

Yun projects the extended and expanded tax credit will encourage 2.4 million households to take the credit in 2010.

“While new-home sales will remain low due to a lack of construction, existing-home sales are projected to rise to around 5.6 million in 2010,” Yun says. Last year there were 5.16 million existing-home sales.

He added that one of the greatest benefits of rising sales will be firming home prices.

“For several months now we’ve been seeing stabilization in all of the home price measures as inventory is pulled down,” Yun says. “As a result, the housing wealth for many middle class families has begun to stabilize.”

Regional Data

Here's a breakdown by region for the PHSI:

• Northeast: rose 2.3 percent to 76.1 in December and is 14.9 percent higher than December 2008.
• Midwest: increased 5.2 percent to 86.9 and is 8.7 percent above a year ago.
• South: rose 2.2 percent to an index of 98.4, and are 5.5 percent higher than December 2008.
• West: fell 3.8 percent to 119.9 but is 18.6 percent above a year ago.

—NAR

10 Home Features Buyers Want

10 Home Features Buyers Want

Home designers and builders speaking at the recent International Builders Show in Las Vegas say that buyers are seeking cost-effective features and rejecting things that don’t have lasting value.

“It's all about family togetherness – casual living, entertaining and flexible spaces," says Carol Lavender, president of the Lavender Design Group in San Antonio.

Paul Cardis, CEO of Avid Ratings, which conducts an annual survey of buyer preferences, identified these must-haves in new homes:

1. Large kitchens with islands
2. Energy efficiency, including energy-efficient appliances, super insulation, and high-efficiency windows.
3. Home offices
4. Main-floor master suite
5. Outdoor living space
6. Ceiling fans
7. Soaking tub in the master suite and/or an oversize shower with a seating area
8. Stone and brick exteriors rather than stucco or vinyl
9. Community walking paths and playgrounds
10. Two-car garages, but three-car garages are even more desirable

Source: MarketWatch, Steve Kerch (01/30/2010)

Housing Gets Little Mention in Obama Speech

Housing Gets Little Mention in Obama Speech

Some listeners criticized President Obama for failing to pay more attention to the housing crisis in Wednesday night’s State of the Union message.

Obama promised to “step up refinancing so that home owners can move into more affordable mortgages,” but he didn’t offer any details. There was no mention at all of addressing falling home values, restoring the mortgage-backed securities markets or shoring up FHA, critics said. Nor did he mention expiring housing tax credits.

Fresno, Calif., Rep. Jim Costa, said, "The president made no mention of the two most serious issues affecting our Valley's economy: water and housing."

According to a survey conducted for Trulia.com and released shortly before the president’s speech, 36 percent of respondents gave the president a passing grade or better for his efforts to improve the housing crisis. A year ago, he got passing grades from 54 percent.

Source: UPI.com, Steve Cook (01/28/2010)

Ten Inexpensive Ways to Wow Buyers

Ten Inexpensive Ways to Wow Buyers

People ask me all the time how they can make their home more presentable and appetizing to perspective buyers? Well check this out...

Now is the time for home owners contemplating a spring sale to spruce up their properties in anticipation of what Mike Larson of Weiss Research calls a potentially vibrant home-selling season. "If you have been beating your head against a wall, this is going to feel a lot better,” he jokes.

Here are 10 cheap ways to make a property more attractive to shoppers.

1. Improve first impressions. Touch up the paint on the front door and other areas that buyers see first.
2. Clean up the landscaping. Trim the hedges and trees and plant some annuals in the flowerbeds.
3. Paint the interior. A coat of light yellow or cream with contrasting white woodwork looks fresh and clean.
4. Refurbish the floors. Buff the hardwoods. Install new carpets – or at least get them professionally cleaned.
5. Take care of the big problems. If the house needs a roof or the front stoop is crumbling, get them fixed.
6. Buy warranties. Putting appliances under warranty gives homebuyers a secure feeling.
7. Improve energy efficiency. New windows or improved insulation tell a potential buyer the seller is on top of things plus they come with tax benefits.
8. Replace light fixtures. Updated fixtures, especially at the entrance way and in the foyer, create a good first impression.
9. Buy a stove. Home owners whose kitchen isn’t top of the line can jazz it up for a few hundred dollars by buying a new stove, which gives the room a fresh feel.
10. Tidy up the bathrooms. Get rid of mildew, replace caulking and replace stained sinks.

Source: U.S. News & World Report, Luke Mullins (01/21/2010)

Mortgage Applications Up as Rates Slip

Mortgage Applications Up as Rates Slip

Mortgage application volume increased 9.1 percent last week compared to the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

On an unadjusted basis, the index rose 10.4 percent, but was down 52.3 percent compared with the same week a year ago.

Much of the decline compared to the previous year pertained to refinances. The unadjusted purchases index increased 9.8 percent compared to the previous week and was down 19.1 percent from a year ago.

Interest rates decreased last week:

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 5.00 percent from 5.13 percent.
• 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.33 percent from 4.45 percent.
• 1-year ARMs decreased to 6.72 percent from 6.83 percent.

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (01/20/2010)

Housing Economists: Sales Are on the Rise

Housing Economists: Sales Are on the Rise

The housing recovery should gain moment in 2010, but the improvement will still be slow, according to a panel of economists speaking at the International Builders Show in Las Vegas.

"It won't be a strong recovery, but it will be a recovery," said David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders.

Crowe forecast that sales of new homes will rise by about 33 percent while resales will go up 7 percent. He expects prices to remain stable in most areas, but some cities may see some slight declines.

"I believe we've seen the worst of the house price declines ... The stage is set for the consumer to return," Crowe said.

Source: Associated Press, Alex Veiga (01/19/2010)

Forbes Analyst: Housing, Good Investment in 2010

Analyst: Housing a Good Investment in 2010

Forbes housing reporter and analyst Francesca Levy makes some thought-provoking predictions in the latest issue of the magazine.

She predicts:

• Real estate will be an attractive investment strategy in 2010 with wealthy investors devoting an increasing segment of their portfolios to it.
• Loan modifications will result in more people who should probably be facing foreclosure slipping deeper into debt.
• Cities like Omaha, Neb., and Buffalo, N.Y., which avoided the housing bubble and most of the bust, will be models for cities trying to avoid another bubble.
• Financial troubles in Dubai will ripple through the U.S. luxury market, creating energy in a market that has been stagnant.

Source: Forbes, Francesca Levy (12/28/2009)

1,000 Ways To Pick The Right Realtor

1,000 Ways To Pick The Right Realtor

Written by: Greg Nino Houston Texas a Realtor with Re-max.

This will be the first of many public blogs to come. The story will be 1,000 ways to pick the right Realtor. This is pretty simple. Number 1,000 comes with an added bonus, but you'll have to stick around to find out what it is. Here we go.

1. If a Realtor starts out by showing you a picture of themself in any magazine, walk away. Most Realtors will pay top dollar "to have their names in the lights." They love to impress themselves and most importantly, other Realtors. They assume this type of advertising provides them instant credibility with you, the consumer. Ego advertising is for the ego, nothing more.

2. Don't assume an "OLDER" Realtor is one that is wise about selling homes. Most agents I know get into real estate after finishing a career in something entirely different. It's a popular "second" career and even hobby for many folks. Again, just because she's 60 doesn't mean she's more experienced than me.

3. Many new agents and even experienced agents feel it necessary to buy a car they can't afford. Don't assume A LOT when you work with a Realtor. Instead, ask dozens and dozens of questions. If a Realtor drives a 65k BMW, but wears stretchy polyester pants from Sears than you have to wonder if the agent is just pretending to be successful.

4. Do try to annoy your Realtor with questions when your first meet them. You'll figure out there temperament level quickly. Many agents boast about their ability to "provide excellent customer service." For fun, repeat yourself a few times to see if they start getting pissy. I love when prospects DRILL me. I love it because I know other agents won't be as patient.

5. If your Realtor starts the conversation out with.. "I'll reimburse you part of the commission or I'll list your home for almost nothing" then you need to hide from them. Odds are they sleep in that expensive BMW at night. They probably are starving financially and are reduced to trying to BUY their buyers and sellers. You do get what you pay for in this business.

6. If a Realtor agrees with all that you say, find a new one. Your shadow is more competent than a yes man.

7. Don't assume a Broker has more negotiating skills than a Salesperson. A salesperson is a regular Realtor without a Brokers license. Brokers usually market the office, recruit new agents and are very busy doing "other things" besides selling real estate. This isn't to suggest that all Brokers are out of touch when it comes to working with buyers and sellers on a day to day basis.

8. Don't pick the Realtor your boss suggests, especially if it's his spouse. If "that" Realtor sucks, you're going to really be in a jam. Instead, say thank you, but no thank you. Your boss will respect your candor, not look down on you for choosing elsewhere. If you're working with a relocation department then it may be a different story.

9. Many agents have a website. Ask for it. The website can say an awful lot about that individual.

See you next week.

Expanded Tax Credit Offers Big Opportunity

Expanded Tax Credit Offers Big Opportunity

With a new April 30 deadline in place for clients to take advantage of a federal home-buyer incentive, real estate practitioners now have slightly less than four months to get their qualified prospects under contract before the cut-off date.

In order to maximize this opportunity, it is recommended that real estate pros revamp their marketing materials to reflect changes in the rules — which now allow certain repeat buyers, as well as first-time buyers, to get a tax break.

In addition to promoting home-buying based on today's lower home prices and historically low interest rates, it is also important for the real estate professional to convey to clients that there is no requirement that they sell their current residence at once — or ever.

On top of polishing up their marketing approach, real estate professionals should free up their time so that they are available to spend more time guiding buyers and hosting property showings.

They also must be thoroughly knowledgeable about the supply of properties priced up to $800,000, which is the maximum price for a home to qualify for the tax credit.

Finally, agents must keep all other parties involved in transactions — from lenders to inspectors — on top of things and at the ready because most motivated house-hunters will want to move quickly once they have found their ideal property.

Source: RISMedia, Margaret Kelly (01/08/10)

© Copyright 2010 Information Inc.

Sellers Should List Homes Early

Sellers Should List Homes Early

Selling a home in the dead of winter might seem ill-advised, particularly considering the state of the economy, but some experts think that making the decision to wait until spring to list the property could be a mistake.

Government incentives will likely have a big impact in 2010, with many buyers determined to sign a contract before the April 30 tax credit deadline.

“This year, we're anticipating sales will peak earlier,” says Nicole Hall, editor in chief of Lendingtree.com, an online mortgage comparison service. “The best time to get your house on the market will be February or early March, and maybe even earlier if you want to avoid competition.”

Traffic on real estate Web sites begins to rise right after the New Year, says Ken Shuman, spokesman for real estate Web site Trulia.com.

Source: Forbes.com, Francesca Levy (12/24/2009)

If You Don't Buy a House Now, You're Stupid or Broke

Interest rates are at historic lows but cyclical trends suggest they will soon rise. Home buyers may never see such a chance again, writes Marc Roth

By Marc Roth

Well, you may not be stupid or broke. Maybe you already have a house and you don't want to move. Or maybe you're a Trappist monk and have forsworn all earthly possessions. Or whatever. But if you want to buy a house, now is the time, and if you don't act soon, you will regret it. Here's why: historically low interest rates.

As of today, the average 30-year fixed-rate loan with no points or fees is around 5%. That, as the graph above—which you can find on Mortgage-X.com—shows, is the lowest the rate has been in nearly 40 years.

In fact, rates are so well below historic averages that it should make all current and prospective homeowners take notice of this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

And it is exactly that, based on what the graph shows us. Let's look at the point on the far left.

In 1970 the rate was approximately 7.25%. After hovering there for a couple of years, it began a trend upward, landing near 10% in late 1973. It settled at 8.5% to 9% from 1974 to the end of 1976. After the rise to 10%, that probably seemed O.K. to most home buyers.

But they weren't happy soon thereafter. From 1977 to 1981, a period of only 60 months, the 30-year fixed rate climbed to 18%. As I mentioned in one of my previous articles, my dad was one of those unluckily stuck needing a loan at that time.

Interest Rate Lessons

And when rates started to decline after that, they took a long time to recede to previous levels. They hit 9% for a brief time in 1986 and bounced around 10% to 11% until 1990. For the next 11 years through 2001, the rates slowly ebbed and flowed downward, ranging from 7% to 9%. We've since spent the last nine years, until very recently, at 6% to 7%. So you can see why 5% is so remarkable.

So, what can we learn from the historical trends and numbers?

First, rates have far further to move upward than downward; for more than 30 years, 7% was the low and 18% the high. The norm was 9% in the 1970s, 10% in the mid-1980s through the early 1990s, 7% to 8% for much of the 1990s, and 6% only over the last handful of years.

Second, the last time the long-term trends reversed from low to high, it took more than 20 years (1970 to 1992) for the rate to get back to where it was, and 30 years to actually start trending below the 1970 low.

Finally, the most important lesson is to understand the actual financial impact the rate has on the cost of purchasing and paying off a home.

Every quarter-point change in interest rates is equivalent to approximately $6,000 for every $100,000 borrowed over the course of a 30-year fixed. While different in each region, for the sake of simplicity, let's assume that the average person is putting $40,000 down and borrowing $200,000 to pay the price of a typical home nationwide. Thus, over the course of the life of the loan, each quarter-point move up in interest rates will cost that buyer $12,000.

Loan Costs

Stay with me now. We are at 5%. As you can see by the graph above, as the economy stabilizes, it is reasonable for us to see 30-year fixed rates climb to 6% within the foreseeable future and probably to a range of 7% to 8% when the economy is humming again. If every quarter of a point is worth $12,000 per $200,000 borrowed, then each point is worth almost $50,000.

Let's put that into perspective. You have a good stable job (yes, unemployment is at 10%, but another way of looking at that figure is that most of us have good stable jobs). You would like to own a $240,000 home. However, even though home prices have steadied, you may be thinking you can get another $5,000 or $10,000 discount if you wait (never mind the $8,500 or $6,500 tax credit due to run out next spring). Or you may be waiting for the news to tell you the economy is "more stable" and it's safe to get back in the pool. In exchange for what you may think is prudence, you will risk paying $50,000 more per point in interest rate changes between now and the time you decide you are ready to buy. And you are ignoring the fact that according to the Case-Shiller index, home prices in most regions have been trending back up for the last several months.

If you are someone who is looking to buy or upgrade in the $350,000-to-$800,000 home price range, and many people out there are, then you're borrowing $300,000 to $600,000. At 7%, the $300,000 loan will cost just under $150,000 more over the lifetime, and the $600,000 loan an additional $300,000, if rates move up just 2% before you pull the trigger.

What I'm trying to impress upon everyone is that if you are planning on being a homeowner now and/or in the foreseeable future, or if you are looking to move your family into a bigger home, then pay more attention to the interest rates than the price of the home. If you have a steady job, good credit, and the down payment, then you really are being offered the gift of a lifetime.

Marc Roth is the founder and president of Home Warranty of America, which touches just about every part of the real estate industry since it sells through builders, real estate agents, title companies, mortgage companies, and directly to consumers.

Five Key Housing Issues to Watch in 2010

By Nick Timiraos

The housing market, which brought the economy to its knees in 2008, struggled to recover in 2009. The modest gains of the past year can be credited in many ways to federal support that will be removed at some point in 2010.

That makes for an uncertain outlook for the year ahead, one filled with questions about what policymakers will choose to do and how markets will react to those decisions. “The can has been kicked down the road,” says Ivy Zelman, chief executive of Zelman & Associates, a housing-research firm.

Here’s our list of five big issues to keep an eye on in 2010:

Mortgage rates: The Federal Reserve has kept mortgage rates low for most of 2009 by committing to purchase up to $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities. Mortgage rates stayed at or below 5% for much of 2009 thanks to the Fed’s purchases, which have already been extended once, to March 31. Whether the private market is ready to fill the gap when the Fed exits is one of the hottest debates between economists, investors and analysts. The Mortgage Bankers’ Association says that it expects rates to rise by around one-quarter of a percentage point, but others say rates could jump by as much as a full percentage point. Low mortgage rates helped ignite a fragile recovery in home sales in 2009, and they allowed millions of homeowners (including Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke) to refinance out of mortgages that might have increased to higher rates.

Fannie, Freddie and the FHA: Nearly nine in 10 mortgages are now being backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage-finance giants taken over by the government, or government agencies such as the Federal Housing Administration. The future of Fannie and Freddie remains nearly as uncertain now as it was one year ago, but the White House has said it will offer its recommendations on how to remake the U.S. housing-finance infrastructure early this year. The FHA, meanwhile, has suffered from heavy losses that could lead to a taxpayer bailout, and it is set to announce a series of measures in the next few weeks to tighten its standards. The New Deal-era agency, which offers loans with minimum 3.5% down payments, backed half of all sales to first time home buyers during the peak April-June buying period. Needless to say, builders are anxious about the prospect of any tightening of loan standards.

Loan modifications: The Obama administration launched the most ambitious government effort to date in February to modify loans for troubled borrowers. That program, however, has been off to an underwhelming start because loan servicers, which collect loan payments, have had to rapidly build staff and systems to administer the program. Borrowers who complete three reduced loan payments are eligible for a permanent modification that reduces their monthly payment for up to five years. Through November, some 728,000 borrowers have signed up for trial modifications, but just 31,000 have moved into permanent workouts, or fewer than 5% of those eligible. Loan modification efforts have helped to hold back the supply of foreclosures for sale. The number of seriously delinquent loans continues to climb, so it’s reasonable to expect a pick up this year in distressed sales and foreclosures that hit the market.

More loan resets: Analysts and pundits have been warning for years about the coming wave of option adjustable-rate mortgages that will jump to sharply higher payments beginning this year. Those loan recasts are concentrated particularly in high-cost housing markets, such as coastal California and other areas where homes became increasingly unaffordable at the height of the housing boom. Meanwhile, more interest-only loans that allowed borrowers to avoid making principle payments for three, five, or seven years will reset to higher payments. Those loans became especially popular among borrowers of jumbo loans, which are too large for government backing and range from $417,000 in most parts of the country to as high as $729,750 in the most expensive housing markets. Many of these borrowers owe more than their homes are worth, leaving them particularly vulnerable to default if they can’t afford the higher payments. That could cause more pain for mid-to-upper end housing markets that began to show more signs of stress in 2009.

Tax credit and home sales: Sales were fueled in the late summer and early fall in part due to an $8,000 tax credit that had been set to expire in November. Congress has extended that through the first half of next year, but some economists say that the tax credit will steal demand from future months. The tax credit led first-time buyers to compete with investors on lower-priced homes, and prices posted six straight months of modest gains through October, according to the Case-Shiller index, which measures home prices in 20 cities. While it wouldn’t be surprising to see prices tick down again during the winter, when home sales are normally cooler, there’s still a good deal of debate between housing economists and analysts over whether a “double-dip” could lead home prices to fall below the bottom that was set last April. Meanwhile, housing analysts expect to see an uptick in short sales, where lenders allow homeowners to sell for less than they owe on the mortgage.

Readers, what else about the housing market keeps you up at night?